5-09-07 - Mission Impossible?

Grêmio hosts São Paulo tonight with a berth in the Libertadores Cup quarterfinals on the line. The Tricolor Gaúcho trails 0-1 from the first leg and needs to win by two goals in order to advance. A 1-0 win would send the series to penalty kicks. Any other result would qualify São Paulo.

Despite the momentum gained from winning the Gaúcho State Championship on Sunday, Grêmio knows the task ahead is extremely difficult. The Tricolor has struggled offensively in the Libertadores Cup, scoring only four goals in seven games. That does not bode well since at that rate, the best they can hope for is penalty kicks. If that scenario should materialize, chalk it up as a win for São Paulo. With Rogério Ceni in goal, there’s no way the Paulistas are losing a shootout.

History is also not in Grêmio’s favor. Grêmio is 3-5 in playoff series against São Paulo, although it won the last meeting, a two-game sweep in the 2001 Brazil Cup quarterfinals. The Paulistas are 2-1-1 in their last four visits to Olímpico and are 8-2-1 in their last eleven meetings overall. And the last time Grêmio beat São Paulo by multiple goals was way back in 1995.

No, the odds are definitely against Grêmio. I predict either a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 win accompanied by a loss in the shootout. I just don’t see the Tricolor coming out of this series. São Paulo is not Caxias and this is not the Gaúcho League. It will take all the heart and fighting spirit Grêmio can muster to pass this test. But things are never over for a team that never quits.

Libertadores Cup playoff series records:
Grêmio        13-6
São Paulo    20-4

Playoff series against Brazilian teams:
Grêmio        3-2
São Paulo    6-1